Maplecroft has, as usual, provided timely analysis of the events in Ghana. I definitely suggest checking out their analysis since it’s a) thorough; and b) it’s free! Here’s the takeaway:
The death of Mills throws the competition for power at the December 2012 elections wide open, in a contest which will be intensely fought due to surging oil revenues. Ghana effectively has a two-party political system with the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the opposition National Patriotic Party (NPP) enjoying very similar levels of support. In the December 2008 presidential elections, Mills defeated the NPP candidate, Nana Akufo-Addo, with a very narrow majority (50.35% of the vote). Prior to the death of Mills, it was anticipated that the result of the 2012 would be equally close, although the stakes will be much higher. The anticipated increase in revenue from oil production in the next electoral term will grant the winning party significantly enhanced powers of patronage, potentially allowing them to cement their position in power. This is likely to continue to generate political tensions. (Maplecroft)
