- Greece hasn’t been paying its medical bills, which makes the writer of this blog and Athens very similar (joking!). Seems to me like Greece is robbing Peter to pay Paul. The ECB’s position doesn’t seem flexible, but something has to give. Greece has become “that friend” that no one will trust with money. (Financial Times)
- Top story in the FT is that French finance minister Christine Lagarde is the favorite to takeover from DSK at the IMF. (Financial Times)
- Pakistan is soliciting China to build a naval base at Gwadar. I’m sure this has nothing to do with how embarrassed their military is after the OBL assassination. (Financial Times)
- In what could potentially derail South Sudan’s independence Khartoum has seized control of the border town of Abyei. This is very troublesome, but maybe we all are a bit guilty of just hoping this would end amicably. (BBC)
- Byblos Bank’s Country Risk Bulletin looks at Sudan, Ghana, Iran, Egypt, Armenia, Nigeria, UAE, Ethiopia, Jordan, and China. (Byblos Bank)
Archive for Armenia
- Attention Political Scientists: Nursultan Nazarbayev won an astounding 95% of the vote on Sunday in Kazakhastan’s presidential competition. Now before you think “fraud” and other unlikely scenarios remember that this had an 89.9% turnout! Oh, I’m sorry, I see now I meant 95.5% not 95%. Giving them 2010 chairmanship of the OSCE was surely the prudent thing to do. (The Nation)
- Sovereign bod rates in Portugal have reached 9.91%. As if that wasn’t enough for those in Lisbon to lose sleep the next challenge is “to find €7bn in bond redemptions and interest payments in June.” The election date? June 5. (Financial Times)
- The EU’s emissions trading scheme is planned to come online in less than eight months. Who cares, right? Wrong. “All airlines flying into and within Europe will have to abide by the EU’s emissions trading scheme.” (Financial Times)
- Irish banks were told they need to raise €24bn in additional capital. (Financial Times)
- BMI’s Risk Watchdog blog looks at the tensions in Armenia and Azerbaijan. I commented at the bottom if you want to join the conversation. (Risk Watchdog)
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By Brian Hasbrouck · Comments (0)
Monday,
September
27th,
2010
- Today Venezuela is holding very important legislative elections. According to the WSJ Chavez’s party is expected to “maintain firm control over congress and could set up President Hugo Chavez as a heavy favorite to win another re-election in 2012.” (WSJ) (Reuters)
- Expropriation in Venezuela, check it out. (LAHT)
- Wolfgang Munchau on the “European Financial Stability Fund: it “is in many respects like a gigantic collateralised debt obligation.” (FT)
- Over at Political Risk Review a review on how four nations, Algeria, Mali, Mauritania and Niger, are meeting to draft an anti-al Qaeda plan. (PRR) (Reuters)
- CLC Asia looks at the Philippines and the political risk in the country with respect to mining. (CLC Asia)
- Beyond BRICs looks at the week ahead. Highlights from it include the meeting on Tuesday of North Korea’s (only political party) Workers’ Party of Korea, and the presidential and legislative election in Brazil on October 3. (BB)
- Finally some good new from Pakistan!! A proposed $701m polyethylene plant is to be built near Karachi, the country’s economic capital. Why do i care when this blog isn’t focused on FDI, per se?
- “[T]he promoters have applied to the Jeddah-based Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credits (ICIEC), a member of the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) Group, for political risk insurance to cover various risks including equity.” (Rupee News)
- Peter Apps looks at cyberattacks which are increasing in their devastating damage. He brings up something I had not considered which is that “China’s ‘great firewall,’ usually associated with censorship, is also believed to offer some defence against cyber attacks.” (Reuters) There is also growing concern about Syria’s potential drive to get nuclear weapons.
- Byblos’ Country Risk Weekly Bulletin looks at Libya, DRC, Nigeria, Armenia, GCC, Ukraine, Sudan, Ghana, and Jordan, amongst others. (Byblos)
By Brian Hasbrouck · Comments (0)
Wednesday,
September
15th,
2010
- Ethnic tensions in Malaysia may be (very likely are!) preventing investment due to a lack of reforms reliant on race-based public policy. (JG)
- A look at Malaysia’s push for reforms which are a bit ambiguous and potentially politically impossible to push through. (Reuters)
- The WSJ reports that political risks may be the biggest threat to Brazil’s Petrobras’ new exploration. (WSJ)
- The Armenian Observer Blog reports about heightened tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region with tensions rising ahead of Azeri parliamentary elections. (TAOB) Unfortunately there is a growing youth movement seeking a more belligerent solution in the region.
- Political risks to watch in the Netherlands:
- Economic stagnation.
- Policy Vacuum.
- ABN AMRO. (Reuters)
- Regarding energy: “political risk remains most acute in the most advanced markets of all.” Interesting idea, take a look. (EER)
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IMF warns of political risk to Greece’s austerity program. (WSJ)
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Political Risk Latin America posts S&P’s press release regarding Argentina’s bonds being upgraded from B– to a B. Good catch! (S&P)
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Sri Lanka’s credit rating has rise to B+ by S&P. (LB)
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The spat between Russian President Medvedev and Moscow’s mayor, Yury Luzhkov, is causing financial headaches for the Bank of Moscow. The yield on their bonds climbed over 200 basis points! (BW)
By Brian Hasbrouck · Comments (0)
Tuesday,
January
12th,
2010
- Riots in Rosarno, Italy between natives and immigrants have finally been quelled after 2 days. (Telegraph) Here is a map of where Rosarno is.
- Calling the long-term outlook for growth “robust” Moody’s has upgraded Turkey’s government bonds to Ba2. (Link)
- The IMF has arrived in Greece to help tame their deficit. I’m not sure if the IMF can do much, it may indeed take a stronger hand, such as a threat from the ECB. (Link)
- An article on the political economy of Armenian-Turkish relations. Bremmer is cited, and this region has vital connections to European oil, especially if Azerbaijan gets upset over Nargono-Karabakh. (Link)
- Julian Macey-Dare will lead Marsh’s International Political Risk and Structured Credit Practice.
- Evan Freely, global practice leader of Marsh’s political risk and trade credit unit, said: “The range of political risk and structured credit issues facing firms internationally have been severely exacerbated by the global recession. As a result, more clients are seeking the protection that insurance cover can offer against discriminatory governmental actions and politically motivated violence that may have an adverse impact on their contracts, investments and financial performance. Macey-Dare’s expertise in this market makes him ideally suited to help clients identify the solutions that best suit their businesses.” (Link)
- “The Bank of Korea’s monetary policy may be subject to increasing political interference as the government prepares to name a successor at the bank’s helm, ING Groep NV and SC First Bank Korea Ltd. said.” (Link)
- Australia’s Labour-led Government will most likely call an election for the second half of 2010. “From a foreign investors standpoint we have got one of the only economies in the world which has consistently grown,” said Craig James, chief economist at CommSec. Author Michael Perry reports, “Investors see little political risk in Australia in 2010 and add that Australian assets remain good value due to their exposure to China, India and Asia in general.” (Link)
- Power, as in energy, is threatened because of a devastating drought in Venezuela, which possibly threatens the Chavez Regime. An astonishing 73 percent of Venezuela’s electricity comes from one dam, The Guri Dam! It is insane to have that dependence on one dam for nearly three-quarters of a nation’s energy. I haven’t see any credible or attributed sources saying that his regime is truly at risk of collapsing, but the international media seems to be going through schadenfreude as I keep seeing the same claims of possible collapse. (Link)
- Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is allowing Japan Airlines Corp. file for bankruptcy, which Bloomberg Press has characterized as the “clearest sign yet that he represents a break with the past.” (Bloomberg) The article also reports that the Japanese Foreign Minister will be meeting with Secretary of State Clinton to discuss the Okinawa base issues which I touched on briefly (here) when I discussed Bremmer & Roubini’s last article in the WSJ.
- Update 1 — The U.S. has rejected calls for a formal end to the Korean War by N.Korea.
- Update 2 — Chaos in Caracas.
- At Caracas’s middle-class Sambil shopping mall, lines at cashiers reached 50-deep. Carmen Blanco, a 28-year-old accountant, waited to buy a 42-inch flat-screen television she doesn’t need because she already has one at home.
“It doesn’t make any sense to keep my savings,” Ms. Blanco said Saturday. “I’d love to see how things work in a normal country.” (WSJ) Thanks @alykhansatchu
- Update 3 - More news from Venezuela. A bit alarming, actually. “President Hugo Chávez said he ordered two F-16 jets to intercept a U.S. military plane that twice violated Venezuelan airspace on Friday in what he called the latest provocation in the South American nation’s skies.”
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