- Agustin Carstens rips into Europe and the IMF’s MD selection process. Check out the video on the site. Carstens is extremely well spoken and makes cogent points. (Financial Times)
- The FT looks at how Greece is planning on reforming its bailout with the “troika.” (Financial Times)
- Croatia looks set to be the 28th member of the EU. Once unanimous consent to accession is given it’s in. (Financial Times)
- Peru’s mining stocks were hit pretty roughly, as reported yesterday here at PRE. (Financial Times)
- beyondbrics reports that Romania is pursuing a new round of privatizations. (beyondbrics)
- China’s officially announced it “must be alert of economic and political risks in excessive holdings of U.S. dollar assets,” Guan, head of the international payment department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The statement was quickly pulled down, but it’s out, not that any of us had our doubts. (Reuters)
- Moody’s has upgraded Latvia’s rating despite political turmoil. (XE.com)
- Key political risks to watch in France. (Reuters)
Archive for Latvia
By Brian Hasbrouck · Comments (0)
Wednesday,
March
31st,
2010
Top Oil Producers. (Source: CNN Money)
- A new bill could potentially require any oil operator in Brazil to get a majority of their supplies from Brazilian suppliers and to partner with the state company, Petrobras. Petrobras would be “solely responsible for laying the infrastructure required to extract oil and ultimately overseeing all the production.” This could potentially slow down the exploration and extraction of newly discovered fields. The same article mentions that Nigeria has the same intentions, except of course that Nigeria “lacks both a technically advanced state oil company and a major industrial base to make home-grown equipment for the industry.”
- “A policy-driven drop in foreign investment and an overestimation of the operational capability of the local national oil company is likely to result in a substantial drop” in Nigerian oil production, writes Greg Priddy, a global energy analyst at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. (CNN)
- Reuters reports that many of Brazil’s CEOs are heading into October’s election on “cruise control.” (Reuters)
- Ratio magazine looks at East Africa.
- Uganda is believed to be at some risk from Islamic terrorism caused by the presence of its troops in Somalia, but the political risk outlook is equally a headache: To a much smaller degree than Kenya, Uganda also suffered political violence during three days of deadly riots in Kampala in September 2009.
- “Political risk for Kenya has been more or less constant since it took a dive in 2008 with the post-election violence. FDI has been somewhat stagnant since then, but local business activity and tourism earnings have begun to recover. Still, as evidenced by crisis triggered by prime minister’s attempt to suspend two ministers, the grand coalition (Coalition Crisis in Kenya: More of the Same? ) is as dysfunctional as ever. And more violence is expected around the 2012 elections. This will lead to a marked slowdown in business in the year running up to the elections, and further disruptions to agricultural productivity and tourism could mean another GDP dip for Kenya post-2012.”
- An article about how Latvia illustrates political risk. In a reversal of an agreement with the EU and the IMF to not cut taxes the government is voting on whether to cut VAT for hotels. (FT)
- OPIC has opened a $50 million line of credit for Haiti. (Reuters)
- businessneweurope has a great feature on political risk in central and eastern Europe. (Subscription Required) Special focus on Ukraine, Belarus, Turkey, Greece, Moldova, Latvia, the Czech Republic, and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
- Banks under the management of the Central Bank of Nigeria may take up to three years to return to profitability. “Recent revelations of further abuses by the turn-around managers of the banks and discovery of hidden pockets of toxic assets are seen as factors that may prolong the recovery period well beyond the September 2010 projection of the CBN.” (Business Daily Online)
- IHS Global Insight has been named “Forecaster of the Year” by Marketwatch. (Press Release)
- Iran’s petrol costs may rise since western companies are retreating for fear of political sanctions against Iran and themselves. (The National)
- Lundin Mining Corp’s renegotiations seem to be coming to an end for their mine in the DRC. “Investors got more nervous after another company, First Quantum Minerals Ltd. , had its Congo mine expropriated by the government last year under questionable circumstances. That raised political-risk concerns about the DRC, even though they were already off the charts.” (Kelowna)
- Speaking of political risk in the DRC: “The Kolwezi project was seized in September. Then a month later, First Quantum and its joint venture partners were ordered to pay US$3-million in damages to the government and Gécamines, its stated-owned mining company, on the grounds that there was “fraud” committed in the setting up of the Kolwezi joint venture, and thus it never really existed in law. Then in February, the government and Gécamines allegedly made the demand for up to US$12-billion instead.”
- Portugal has passed its federal budget trying to bring the deficit down from 9.3 to 8.3%.
- “This is important to reduce political risk and to eliminatea source of uncertainty, in case the country were to face achange of government.” (Reuters)
- Chevron is facing more problems in Ecuador. President Rafeal Correa, friend of Hugo Chavez, publicly supported the case against Chevron in a case where $27 billion in damages is sought.
- “Some locals will gripe that multinationals are using treaties to place themselves above the law, but the alternative is higher perceived political risk and less investment.” (FT)
By Brian Hasbrouck · Comments (0)
Monday,
March
29th,
2010
- The FT looks at how CDS are the new bogeyman of international finance. (FT)
- Naturally the metro attack in Russia raised new concerns about political risk. (MarketWatch) You can also get more analysis here.
- Roubini believes the earliest Bulgaria can adopt the euro is 2014. (SNA)
- Latvia is considering cutting their hotel VAT which would violate their agreement with the IMF. (FT)
- Sinopec, a Chinese company, is avoiding any “projects that involved high political risk.” (FT)
By Brian Hasbrouck · Comments (0)
Thursday,
March
25th,
2010
Their Chinese translation services may go dormant for a bit.
- Leading off today’s political risk news is that GoDaddy, who the current domain was purchased through, will stop registering domains in China. Their general counsel cited dozens of extremely serious attacks along with censorship as the reasons for its exit. (FP)
- Moody’s believes that 2010 will be a “year of improvement” for the Middle East.
- The report cautioned that, “we are also careful to put political risk in perspective: political events that generate headlines and sensational commentary may not in fact have a material and lasting impact on a government’s debt-repayment capacity.” (Link)
- Good advice in general, I’d say!
- Not even making this up: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is extending Easter by three days to help conserve energy. Any reader of this blog will know I like to poke fun at Chavez but this seems to be mostly out of his control since most of the country’s energy comes from three dams and there has been a drought. What is in his control, however, is the perception of risk to investors in Venezeula and critics have blamed the lack of investment in energy partly on him. (UPI)
- An article about Latin American energy nationalism, especially as concerns Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador andMexico. (Link) Nothing too groundbreaking, but definitely a good article.
- From President Chavez himself: “Your investment has all the guarantees, and the benefitsof the investment and the repatriation of capitals.” Forgive my pessimism. (Reuters)
- LiveMint has its political risk index out which they get from Eurasia Group. (LiveMint) Special focus is paid to Argentina, Hungary, Egypt, South Korea, and Nigeria. (Chart)
- Came across a great new journalist/analyst of political risk: Nicholas Watson. Watson blends good charts with great analysis. This article details how Central and Eastern Europe will deal with tough fiscal decisions along with the myriad elections this year. Watson details the political risk in Hungary, Bosnia–Herzegovina, Moldova, Latvia, and the Czech Republic and upcoming elections in the region. (Link)
- On a side note, if you are going to the African Economic Forum I will not be able to attend this year since my request for a media pass was denied. If you are attending I’d love a guest post on what’s covered, especially with the China-Africa panel. Let me know!
By Brian Hasbrouck · Comments (0)
Friday,
February
19th,
2010
Nicholas Consonery believes financial disagreements are driving discord between China and the U.S.
- ONDD has raised premiums for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. (TradeFinance)
- The rising tensions in Kenya’s ruling coalition are creating higher political risk. (BusinessDaily)
- Foreign investors, manufacturers, bankers and private equity specialists who talked to Business Dailysaid the quick turn of events since Friday last week has elevatedKenya’s political risk profile to a new high raising the prospect ofpulling back the pace of economic activity.
- Prime Minister Odinga believes discussions about scaring away investors due to political risk are overblown. (BusinessDaily)
- Top political risks in Brazil.
- The presidential elections
- Government spending
- Oil and gas
- Policy stagnation
- Corruption
- Foreign policy (Reuters)
- Staying on the Brazil track of news PIMCO is loading up on Brazilian debt. They did so in 2002 and made a killing and will do so again in hopes that they will repeat such success. Interesting. (BW)
- Political risk insurance rates are declining (Vanguard)
- “The credit crisis was really the most significant event we have everseen or hope to ever see in our careers,”” said Keith Dunford,vp-worldwide underwriting manager for political risk at the ChubbSpecialty unit of Chubb Corp. of Warren, N.J. However, “everything hasmoderated now.”
Follow Us!